Dems Out In Front On Generic Ballot Polls

By on December 21, 2017

Among likely voters considering a generic 2018 midterm ballot, Democrats enjoy an 18 point margin according to the latest CNN survey.

All told, 56 percent of those surveyed said they are more likely to vote for a Democrat in the midterm elections, while only 38 percent said they would likely vote Republican. The poll surveyed 1,001 adults between Dec. 14 and Dec. 17, meaning that the newly passed tax legislation did not factor into the results.

This data represents a stark departure from the last midterm poll held in 2013. In that poll, 47 percent of voters indicated they were more likely to vote Democrat, while 49 percent favored Republicans.

These generic ballot polls have historically been a strong indicator of how the midterm elections are likely to go. If the Democrats can swing an 18 point margin, they are likely to make significant gains in the House and stand a puncher’s chance of taking back the Senate.

In terms of overall favorability, the Republicans still have ground to make up on the Democrats.

From CNN:

The Republican Party itself is viewed less favorably than the Democratic Party. About a third — 34% — have a favorable view of the GOP, while 46% say the same about the Democrats, according to the poll. That marks a rebound for Democrats after their favorability ratings sagged earlier this fall and is the highest mark for them since July of 2016. The Republican numbers are also on the rise, but remain below levels reached earlier this year.

There has been a strong backlash to the authoritarian policies of the Trump administration and the Democrats have ridden that wave to significant victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and Alabama. Whether they can do that in 2018 is another story. Republicans have time to re-think their strategies, although the biggest “wild card” in these races is the president himself, whose behavior cannot be predicted. If he continues to tweet up a storm and drag the GOP down with him, the Democrats have a good chance of crushing the midterms.