GOP Down By 17 Points In New Generic Ballot Poll

By on January 11, 2018

According to the most recent poll from Quinnipiac University, Democrats have amassed a strong 17-point lead in the generic ballot question, boding well for their chances in the 2018 midterm elections this fall.

Asked whether or not they would prefer to see Republicans or Democrats win control of the House in 2018, 52 percent of those surveyed say they backed Democrats with only 35 percent of respondents saying they are in favor of the GOP retaining control. Those are larger numbers than have been seen in other polls over recent weeks, with Democrats holding around a 12 point lead in generic ballot polling in the RealClearPolitics average.

In 2006, Democrats had an 8 point lead in generic ballot polls and ended up gaining 30 seats and wrestling back control of Congress from Republicans. In 2010, the GOP had a 7-point lead and ended up gaining 63 seats in the House and flipped both chambers back to Republican control.

It isn’t just the generic ballot polling that spells trouble for Republicans. The president has historically low approval numbers as well, and the GOP congress has, for better or worse, chosen to hitch its wagons to the Trump train. As his number continue to drop, so do the number of seats that Republicans are likely to retain once the election is said and done.

There’s also a number of Republicans who are leaving Congress. There are more than 30 seats that will be vacated through either retirement or resignation. Those seats will be prime targets for Democrats looking to make up ground.

With such a wide margin on the generic ballot question, it’s not unreasonable to expect another Democratic wave in 2018, though the numbers are so bad for Republicans it’s possible we could see an unprecedented flip in both chambers, provided Democrats can overcome some of the gerrymandering that has been going on in GOP districts over recent years.